Margins: Fall of Empire Pt. 01

This story is a different sort of story. It's anchored in reality, while describing very unreal events, events that led to the world as seen in Margins of Reality.

Here you will find in-universe documents, found materials, from the US Federal Government's attempts to cope with the world changing, thirty years before Margins of Reality begins. It's not necessary to read that story first, but each story will make more sense if you also read the other.

This story is the end of the world as we know it. It is dark, and has definite horror elements. This includes some graphic descriptions and transcriptions of audio reflecting graphic violence. There are also references to physical harm to children, though those aren't as graphic and don't deal with individuals. Don't say I didn't warn you.

In case you clicked here from my author page, and didn't notice the category marking, I should also point out that the story is entirely non-erotic. Do not expect any hanky-panky in this one.

This story is long, and already complete. It will be posted in eight instalments, in as rapid succession as I can manage (without posting two the same day, ideally). In this first part, we see the US government start to react to news of strange events, far to the east.

Although certain characters are based on their prominent real-world equivalents, no claim is made as to the accuracy of that depiction. Each such character is a fictional creation, standing in for someone who actually exists, and may or may not resemble that individual. My depiction of them is entirely my own, and should not be confused with an attempt to accurately depict any real person.

Conversely, all other characters, all those who are not public figures, are entirely original characters and should not be conflated with anyone who might happen to be in a similar place at the time in question. Finally, it should go without saying that all dialogue and events are entirely fictional.

* * *

As always, the Quaranteam Writers' Room has been of enormous help, especially RonanJWilkerson. And of course, thanks are also due to my silent partner, who dealt with way more nightmare fuel than usual when supporting me writing this.

Introduction:

When the world changed, it was only by luck that our leaders saw it coming. They saw—we all saw—what happened in Europe. They tried to take action, to preserve leadership and government, to have someone to keep survivors working together.

They failed.

Part of the reason they failed was that they'd seen what happened in Europe, but they hadn't understood it. Frankly, it's hard to be sure that anyone could have. But those of us who have done our best to study what happened at "safe" locations across the country mostly came to a different conclusion.

Success was impossible.

But because they made an active, structured attempt, those efforts were recorded. And if we look at "success" in a different way than what they planned, maybe it did succeed. Once we knew we were safe, we recovered those archives. It took some time to reconstruct the full sequence of events, with hundreds of people speaking simultaneously about dozens of different events. Then we transcribed the recordings, so we could have a complete record that didn't depend on having working computers available.

Then we decided that part of this record should be shared. We should remember the brave efforts of so many people to protect the leaders of our country, both military and civilian. That they did not succeed is no failure on their part; they didn't know what they were up against. None of us did.

This record isn't for entertainment. It's a commemoration, and it's something to learn from. If you've received it, it's because someone thought you could be trusted to treat it as such, and to make that judgment about others in turn.

Remember the past, look to the future.

MAJ E. Niedermayer

Archivist, Greenstone Sanctuary, March 22, 2035

WTF?

MEMO 2026-03-22 02:30Z (ODNI)

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND/HCS-O//NOFORN

Precedence: IMMEDIATE (O)

DNI-CN: 2026-00385

21 MAR 2026

FROM: DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

TO: IC-ELEMENTS-ALL

TIME: 22 MAR 2026 02:30Z

SUBJECT: (TS//NF) PRIORITY TASK: EVALUATION OF EVOLVING SITUATION IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA

1. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) CODEWORD: Matters related to the subject of this memo are designated a Special Access Program denoted by the codeword DOWNWIND. Access is restricted to personnel with a demonstrated need-to-know as determined by the DNI or DCIA.

2. (TS//DOWNWIND/HCS-O//NF) SITUATION: Low-reliability HUMINT sources in Myanmar and Western China [TD-314/07831-26 (21 March 2026), IIR 6 382 0193 26] have reported mass disappearance and/or death of children in family homes and rumors of mass casualty events in high-population areas. More reliable sources in India and Kazakhstan [IIR 6 984 1023 26, IIR 6 935 0237 26] have provided corroborating data pertaining to children only. Initial analysis suggests possible temporal/geographical correlation, with earlier onset at more eastern longitudes. The degree and scale of such correlation has not yet been estimated.

3. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) DIRECTION: The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is directed to leverage any and all sources to establish the veracity of these reports and assess the nature and cause. Particular attention is to be paid to potential westward migration of the phenomenon.

4. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) AUTHORIZATION: The relevant operational leads at the CIA are authorized to task and communicate with member elements of the Intelligence Community (IC) to support this evaluation and any further assessment deemed necessary.

5. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) REPORTING: Consolidated assessment required by ODNI no later than 22 March 2026 17:00Z. Interim reporting is at agency discretion.

6. (TS//NF) FUNDING: Initial operational costs, including interagency coordination ($2.5M), are authorized from DNI FY2026 Base Contingency Reserve Funds under 50 U. S. C. § 3024(n). No supplemental legislative appropriation is required.

CLASSIFIED BY: ADNI/SC

DERIVED FROM: 1.2(g), 1.4(c)

DECLASSIFY ON: 25X1 20760321

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND/HCS-O//NOFORN

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 02:31Z DM

Private Messages: @DNI_TG, @ODNI_KarlJones

2026-03-22 02:31Z DNI_TG: I've signed off on that memo because I trust you, Karl. But why are we making such a fuss over something happening in India and Kazakhstan?

2026-03-22 02:32Z ODNI_KarlJones: It's moving west, ma'am.

2026-03-22 02:33Z DNI_TG: What's that got to do with anything?

2026-03-22 02:33Z DNI_TG: Oh. Right. Keep me in the loop.

2026-03-22 02:34Z ODNI_KarlJones: Couriers should be in place to notify the Gang of Eight, ma'am. I'll give them the go-ahead now.

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 02:39Z private channel

#downwind-coord

2026-03-22 02:39Z CIA_OwenTownsend: @DCIA I've gone over the material, sir. You do realize that we'll have to read in every Station Chief, and authorize them to read in their staff, if we're going to do this?

2026-03-22 02:41Z DCIA: No, Owen, I thought we could do it with three guys at Langley.

2026-03-22 02:41Z DCIA: Of course that's what we have to do. Now put it in a memo so I can approve it.

* * * * *

MEMO 2026-03-22 03:00Z (CIA)

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND//ORCON/NOFORN

Precedence: IMMEDIATE (O)

FROM: DIRECTOR, CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

TO: FEMA ADMINISTRATOR

TIME: 22 MAR 2026 03:00Z

SUBJECT: (TS//NF) FORMAL RECOMMENDATION TO MOVE TO COGCON 3

REFERENCE: [1] //IC-SHARED/DOWNWIND/summary-bundle-01

1. (TS//DOWNWIND//OC/NF) SUMMARY: Given the material obtained so far during the DOWNWIND investigation, a precautionary move to COGCON 3 is recommended.

2. (TS//DOWNWIND//OC/NF) BACKGROUND: On the basis of unclear but concerning reports, the Central Intelligence Agency has been tasked with investigating reports from Central and South Asia regarding deaths and disappearances among sleeping children and unexplained violent attacks in urban areas.

3. (TS//DOWNWIND//OC/NF) INFORMATION: All-source information supports a moderate confidence assessment that mass casualties of sleeping children are likely to have occurred in widely dispersed locations. Analysis available at [1].

4. (TS//DOWNWIND//OC/NF) INFORMATION: No confidence assessment on violent attacks is yet possible, but reports from multiple locations in India, Russia, and Kazakhstan have been judged credible. Details available at [1].

5. (TS//NF) RECOMMENDATION: As a result of the above, it is the view of the Central Intelligence Agency that the United States move to readiness level COGCON 3 on a precautionary basis.

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND//ORCON/NOFORN

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 03:01Z private channel

#downwind-interagency

2026-03-22 03:01Z DCIA: @FEMA_ADMIN I hope you've gotten through the post-read-in material. O-precedence memo on its way, there's hundreds of people who'll thank you for treating it as Z.

2026-03-22 03:03Z FEMA_ADMIN: There's a lot to take in here, but don't you think it's pretty far-fetched?

2026-03-22 03:03Z DCIA: No.

2026-03-22 03:04Z DCIA: Now just look at the memo and save some people from getting a half hour of sleep and then being woken up. Makes people cranky.

2026-03-22 03:06Z FEMA_ADMIN: Okay, I get the picture, just checking your supporting materials.

2026-03-22 03:08Z FEMA_ADMIN: Yeah, I'll buy that. Still seems a bit out there, but if it's real we might be going to 1 quickly. I'm going to get what sleep I can, just in case.

* * * * *

CABLE 2026-03-22 03:04Z (INTERAGENCY)

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND//NOFORN

DIA STB-220326-01

PRECEDENCE: IMMEDIATE (O)

DTG: 220304Z MAR 26

FM: DIA/ST-DUTY

TO: CIA HQ/DOWNWIND CELL

SUBJ: (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) TECHNOLOGICAL POSSIBILITIES REGARDING UNEXPLAINED CHILD DEATHS

1. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) The Directorate of Science & Technology duty desk has reviewed the files classified DOWNWIND.

2. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) While there are hypothetical directed-energy weapon categories that might produce sudden death without immediately apparent marking of the body or massive cutaneous hemorrhaging without disturbance to surrounding material, this office considers this an extremely unlikely explanation for the reported events related to children. The simultaneous existence of technologies that produce each effect and their concurrent use further reduces the probability of such an explanation.

3. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) If any actor had access to such technology, to produce the reported effect it would need to be targeted extremely precisely at a large number of targets across an extremely wide area. An orbital or high-altitude array of independently targetable emitters would hypothetically be able to produce such results, but this would depend on precise intelligence regarding the exact location of children. It would, in addition, require an incredible amount of power, given degradation and dissipation of any effect over the relevant distances.

4. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) In our analysis, we assess with high confidence that the probability of any actor having access to both the required intelligence and a platform of this nature is remote.

5. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) The appearance of "monsters" may be marginally more explicable on the basis of wide-area modulated RF inducing hallucinations. However, the existence of corroborating photographic evidence would negate that possibility.

6. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) Further review by this office may be appropriate if further evidence comes to light that either supports the existence of previously unsuspected capabilities or indicates any different manifestations that may be related to the phenomena already considered.

END

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND//NOFORN

* * * * *

CABLE 2026-03-22 03:10Z (INTERAGENCY)

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND//NOFORN

Precedence: IMMEDIATE (O)

NCMI-2026-00135

21 March 2026

FROM: DIA/NCMI-DUTY

TO: CIA DOWNWIND CELL

TIME: 22 March 2026 03:10Z

SUBJECT: (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) Evaluation of possible organic vectors for overnight child deaths

1. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) BACKGROUND: This is a summary of the evaluation of intelligence reports provided to the National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) regarding reports of overnight deaths and disappearances of children in South and Central Asia.

2. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) SCOPE: NCMI analysts consider the disappearance of children out of scope for analysis. In addition, the available information does not allow for formal assessment of probabilities. As such, this analysis provides a broad exploration of plausible explanations for the events in question and relevant state capabilities.

3. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) BENIGN EXPLANATIONS: Assuming the initial reports are reliable, it must be considered that the countries in question are not models of public health. Pediatric death rates are high in this region. The reported rates over such a large area represent a variation in death rates exceeding three standard deviations from baseline data. However, it is within model bounds for a novel natural pathogen arising within the region.

4. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) OTHER POSSIBILITIES: Other explanations should be strongly considered, as the reported casualty rates are toward the edge of model bounds for a novel natural pathogen, and the range of manners of death reported is unusually broad for a single disease. Biochemical vectors can be discounted from serious consideration given the age-selectivity of the phenomenon.

5. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) NOVEL ENGINEERED PATHOGEN: The descriptions of apparently violent deaths supplied are imprecise. Reports clearly describing violent wounds fall below statistical significance. Other cases may be poor descriptions of the result of a rapid-onset hemorrhagic fever or cutaneous manifestations creating hemorrhagic or mixed-fluid bullae or vesicles. An engineered/enhanced Ebola or cutaneous anthrax, for instance, may produce results consistent with the descriptions. It is, however, more difficult to construct a viable scenario in which a pathogen produces both these results and apparently unmarked corpses.

6. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) MULTIPLE PATHOGENS: The cleanest model to explain the events is the selective and widespread release of at least two engineered pathogens that explicitly target immature immune systems and produce a range of results, including apparent sudden unexplained death alongside more gruesome results.

7. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) IMPLICATIONS: Assuming a controlled release, this model would imply an extraordinarily high biowarfare capability seeking to destabilize multiple states in the regions in question. Plausible candidates include China and Russia, and the capabilities of North Korea are unknown. Motivation for such an action by these states is outside the scope of this analysis, though deliberate action by China would involve either poor targeting or deliberate inclusion of parts of its own territory. While many would consider that unsurprising on the part of China, particularly for certain regions and ethnic groups, we have no evidence of them testing pathogens on their own population in the past. An uncontrolled release would likely involve the same actors, remove the question of motive, but raise new concerns related to the circumstances behind such an event.

8. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) FURTHER ANALYSIS: No further analysis is possible unless a significant number of clearer and more reliable accounts are provided.

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND//NOFORN

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 03:22Z private channel

#downwind-analysts

2026-03-22 03:22Z [SYSTEM] NSA_JasbinderAlagh has been added to the channel

2026-03-22 03:23Z [SYSTEM] NGA_JoannWong has been added to the channel

2026-03-22 03:25Z CIA_BrianJenkins: I see we've got our interagency collaboration. Welcome to the crazy train.

2026-03-22 03:26Z NSA_JasbinderAlagh: Thanks, @CIA_BrianJenkins. That has to be the weirdest briefing I've ever had. Do we think this is real?

2026-03-22 03:27Z CIA_LorenzaRivera: The disappearances of children are real. Sources indicate government disruption is real. The stuff from social media, that's why you're here.

2026-03-22 03:27Z NSA_JasbinderAlagh: You mean those blurry photos, and the video with more screaming than anything you can actually see clearly?

2026-03-22 03:28Z CIA_BrianJenkins: Yeah. Details of the first traceable instance of each are in the system. It would help if you could backtrace the origin of any of those posts.

2026-03-22 03:29Z NSA_JasbinderAlagh: You mean see if there's a coordinated disinfo campaign?

2026-03-22 03:29Z CIA_BrianJenkins: That's what we're hoping you'll find.

2026-03-22 03:30Z NGA_JoannWong: You won't.

2026-03-22 03:32Z NGA_JoannWong: I ran analysis on the material as soon as I got access. Every one of those images, and the video, come from where they say they come from. They have no artifacts suggestive of AI or CGI. The noise data all fits known PRNU signatures. And the last scream on that video has audio characteristics and syncs with apparent camera motion in a way that suggests it came from the person holding the phone it was recorded on.

2026-03-22 03:34Z NSA_JasbinderAlagh: Well, shit.

* * * * *

CABLE 2026-03-22 03:31Z (INTERAGENCY)

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND//NOFORN

Precedence: IMMEDIATE (O)

INR-2026-02376

21 March 2026

FROM: STATE/INR/SCA-DUTY

TO: CIA DOWNWIND CELL

TIME: 22 March 2026 03:31Z

SUBJECT: (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) Intent Analysis of DOWNWIND events in South and Central Asia

1. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) INTRODUCTION: This is an analysis of reported events in South and Central Asia. We have considered the possible source and purpose of unattributed events resulting in the overnight phenomena related to children and the daytime phenomena related to violent unexplained entities both separately and as coordinated efforts.

2. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) ASSUMPTIONS: This analysis starts from an assumption that the source of these events is a rational actor, and that they had some understanding of the effect of their actions. There is no assumption that the attacker had a complete understanding of the immediate effects of their actions, but it is assumed that any understanding was broadly accurate. No assumptions are made as to the mechanism of the effect.

3. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) INTENDED IMPACT: Upon initial analysis, the most likely objectives of either attack, or their combination, are to spread panic and destabilize local governments and civil society in the short term. However, it is also essential to consider the longer-term impacts that may persist once local order is restored.

4. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) IMPACT OF DEATHS AMONG CHILDREN: Understanding the strategic impact of these events requires an initial consideration of the basic human impacts. These impacts are highly likely to be significant on individual emotional and social levels. It can be stated with high confidence that this will lead to workforce paralysis and psychological attrition. Beyond the obvious individual impacts, questions about whether the same vector could target different groups are likely to lead to widespread ongoing anxiety and, in some cases, persistent panic, though the prevalence of such more severe individual effects cannot be estimated and thus no confident assessment can be made of the degree of macro effect. Public health impacts due to an increased demand for orderly disposition of remains are also a factor, but analysis suggests that it is unlikely to be an intended impact, nor will it be as disruptive as other factors. There is a low probability of significant increases in all categories of crime based on a widespread reduction in rational action, but this potential impact cannot be ignored. In the event that normal life is largely restored, which is highly probable though current intelligence is insufficient to estimate when it will happen, economic output will dramatically decrease and interpersonal friction will increase. Ongoing concern or undesirable behavior among the populace may drive governments to implement repressive actions intended to ensure stability.

5. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) IMPACT OF PUBLIC ATTACKS: Many individuals are likely to minimize time spent in public areas. Subject to local laws, rates of armed citizenry are likely to increase. This is likely to include, where applicable, carrying firearms illegally. Some individuals are likely to develop significant threat hypervigilance, which may lead to accidental attacks on perceived threats. Some individuals are likely to minimize public exposure to the extent that they cease to be economically active. Beyond the direct impact of increased violence, the macro outcomes of these effects are remarkably similar to those of the childhood deaths.

6. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) LIKELY UNINTENDED IMPACT: Given the states affected, the possibility of nuclear destabilization must be considered. However, it is unlikely that this is an intended impact, given the likelihood of any nuclear conflict impacting across and beyond the region. In the event that this is intended, we may expect false-flag attacks on either or both of the affected nuclear powers while they are disorganized. In that case, there is high confidence that this will occur within an 18 to 144 hour window after the reference event, based on allowing steps to be taken toward a return to normalcy while ensuring the perception of connection between events. The optimum window is estimated to be 36 to 72 hours, and such action must therefore be assumed to be more probable in that period. However, such an event remains unlikely.

7. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) COLLATERAL RISK: There is a risk that affected countries, particularly the two nuclear powers, may attribute the reference event to one another. While this is not a subject of the requested analysis, the risk of escalation in such a scenario is sufficiently high that it must be made clear.

8. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) SUMMARY OF IMPACT AND INTENT: The overall impact of either attack encompasses political instability, economic depression and potential reactive oppression by governments. These are primarily effective as gray zone deniable methods for degradation of states seen as a military or geopolitical threat, or when preparing the ground for local uprisings and coups d'état. It can be assumed that any attacker with such intent is intending to provoke and materially support such efforts. Alternatively, they would provide a significant benefit to prepare for armed invasion. However, they are less precisely tailored for such objectives. A less likely motivation, assuming that state repression of the general populace is an explicitly intended outcome, is to provide a humanitarian casus belli. The same purpose may also be considered if the immediate intended effect is a complete and prolonged breakdown in state machinery, but as that result is low likelihood, that motivation is not considered high probability.

9. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ATTACKS: Assuming an actor exists with the capability to stage both events, we assess with high confidence that they are related, conducted by or at the direction of the same actor. This assessment is based on the overlap of macro impacts of the attacks and their apparent overlap in area of effect.

10. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) OBSERVATIONS ON IMPACT AND INTENT: While the plausible intent based on the impact is a straightforward analysis, why this method would be chosen is unclear. Unless the attack was near-zero cost for the attacker, more conventional or convenient methods would normally be preferable.

11. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) POSSIBLE SOURCES: Analysis becomes much more difficult to reconcile with known parameters when considering the source. A rational hypothesis can only be formed based on either of two assumptions: the effect was not capable of being precisely targeted (and affected areas other than those reported), or that an attacker proactively sought the same effect in three countries that are notably not geopolitically aligned with one another.

12. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) POOR TARGETING: Under a "poor targeting" scenario, the highest-probability situation is that the effect is contiguous. This implies a belt of affected countries that includes a number of unstable geopolitical situations leading to a range of plausible scenarios.

13. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) OVERVIEW OF SCENARIOS: Given the high level of tension in South Asia, background tensions between Central Asian states in the area, the existence of non-state actors and unpredictable regimes and the proximity and regional interests of China and Russia, a number of possible scenarios must be considered.

14. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) SOUTH ASIAN CONFLICT: The reference event may have been instigated by either India or Pakistan in the belief that only the other would be affected. This is a low probability scenario, as any rational analysis would find a high likelihood that the other was behind the attack. However, the probability is increased if the expected impact was total destabilization creating an opportunity to take control on a humanitarian basis.

15. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) NON-STATE ACTORS: Non-state actors willing to use violent methods in the region include ISKP, TTP, BLA, AQIS, IMU, TIP and TJA, as well as Afghan opposition forces. Given no assumptions as to the mechanism of such an attack, no group can be ruled out based on scale or capability. Any of these groups may have attempted to destabilize a more targeted area in furtherance of their respective goals. The least likely groups to engage in such an effort are those in the Afghan opposition, as it is contrary not only to stated approaches to their goals, but also to achieving those goals, given the level of repression already in place in Afghanistan.

16. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) REGIONAL POWER ACTIONS: Both Russia and China have interests in the region, and may conceivably have instigated the reference event for a range of purposes to further those interests. It is likely in any such case that the intended area of effect was extremely local, as mass destabilization of an entire state would not align with known objectives of either.

17. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) TEST ESCAPE: It is possible that any of these actors, or indeed any party in the region, was attempting a small-scale test. This may even have been intended to be contained within their own territory and in highly controlled circumstances.

18. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) IRAN: Iran's interest in the region is largely theoretical. Analysis suggests with high confidence that, if Iran possessed this capability, it would not be used at this time and in this direction. This assessment is based on their current engagement in armed conflict requiring focused defense, and their greater interest in the Levant region.

19. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) INTENTIONAL MULTIPLE TARGETS: Assuming conversely that the reference event was intentionally targeted to affect the areas in which it has been found provides a narrower range of plausible sources. If we assume that only those states are affected, no rational source presents itself. If, however, one assumes a contiguous area of effect but that the area is intentional, one high-probability motive is apparent, with two likely instigators.

20. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) GREATER KHORASAN: Multiple armed Islamist groups seek to "restore" their interpretation of the historic region of Khorasan to Islamic theocratic rule. It is the key stated aim of ISKP, and is a component of the objectives of AQIS. Should either group have acquired this capability, it would be entirely consistent with their methods and philosophy to attempt to destabilize this region in preparation for an attempted takeover. This would only be attempted when they felt confident in their ability to capitalize on the opportunity.

21. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) IMPLICATIONS: If either group instigated the reference event, there is high confidence that they will attempt armed uprisings against remaining state forces and/or seizures of insecure areas throughout the region.

22. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of no assumptions as to the mechanism of the reference event, the highest likelihood scenario is clearly an Islamist group seeking to unify their own concept of "Greater Khorasan" under their own ideal of Islamic rule. However, this analysis is likely to shift considerably once the mechanism is better understood.

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND//NOFORN

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 03:42Z private channel

#downwind-analysts

2026-03-22 03:42Z NSA_JasbinderAlagh: Your people at Reston dropped the ball. That video wasn't an original upload.

2026-03-22 03:43Z CIA_LorenzaRivera: It was the earliest instance on social media.

2026-03-22 03:43Z NSA_JasbinderAlagh: It's a video capture of a TikTok Live, just with the UI trimmed. It would have been clearer if more people had been watching and reacting. Jo pinned the location to Mumbai just fine, but this upload was from England. Backtracing traffic on the uploader's IP and device ID puts the original live stream half an hour earlier, and there's a good chance that the stream ended abruptly. That video isn't truncated. The stream cut off.

2026-03-22 03:44Z CIA_BrianJenkins: We should get a new package from OSE soon. Let's not jump to conclusions.

* * * * *

CABLE 2026-03-22 03:45Z (CIA)

TOP SECRET//NOFORN

RST OSE-220326-012

PRECEDENCE: IMMEDIATE (O)

DTG: 220345Z MAR 26

FM: CIA/OSE-DUTY

TO: CIA HQ/BOX-05

REF: [1] OSE128-220326-264315-AV3

SUBJ: (TS//NF) Collated social media records per Blind Search Protocol 264315

1. (TS//NF) The latest package of material matching the specified criteria contains 31 images and 73 video clips. Of these, the first instance post has been traced for 28 images and 40 videos [1].

2. (TS//NF) While the search team is not tasked with analysis, there are some details that are immediately apparent that may be useful for analysts to be promptly made aware of.

3. (TS//NF) The rate of content matching specified criteria is increasing rapidly over time.

4. (TS//NF) The range of apparent origin locations is moving west over time.

5. (TS//NF) The level of violence depicted is increasing over time.

6. (TS//NF) If these factors continue, additional staff will be necessary to keep up with volume of material.

7. (TS//NF) Some of the material is beginning to attract attention, with reposts outside the original poster's own immediate network. Consideration should be given to the effect of any such content going viral.

END

TOP SECRET//NOFORN

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 03:47Z private channel

#downwind-coord

2026-03-22 03:47Z CIA_BrianJenkins: Looks like we'll need some additional resources. OSE wants more bodies, and we could use an analyst or two, maybe some specialists.

2026-03-22 03:48Z CIA_OwenTownsend: On-call activation was fifteen minutes ago. Some folks should be with you real soon. What kind of specialists do you want?

2026-03-22 03:50Z CIA_BrianJenkins: Social media behavior and... damn, I don't know. The specialized agencies seem to think this isn't in their domains. I don't know if it would help to have some of them in the room. Or our own people. Regional expertise, definitely.

2026-03-22 03:50Z CIA_OwenTownsend: I'll see what I can shake loose. Anyone else?

2026-03-22 03:51Z CIA_BrianJenkins: We don't actually have a super-secret group of occultists working for us or anything, do we?

2026-03-22 03:51Z CIA_OwenTownsend: No.

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 03:55Z private channel

#downwind-analysts

2026-03-22 03:55Z [SYSTEM] CIA_BridgetPhelan has been added to the channel

2026-03-22 03:55Z CIA_BridgetPhelan: These drills are getting more imaginative. How's it going?

2026-03-22 03:58Z CIA_BrianJenkins: Where are you, Brie?

2026-03-22 03:58Z CIA_BridgetPhelan: SAP closet in my section.

2026-03-22 03:58Z [SYSTEM] CIA_SofiyaQayum has been added to the channel

2026-03-22 03:59Z CIA_LorenzaRivera: You might want to get up here. Things are moving quickly.

2026-03-22 04:00Z CIA_SofiyaQayum: I just signed the NDA, this briefing packet is wild.

2026-03-22 04:01Z CIA_BrianJenkins: You have no idea. Finish the core reading then join us. We could really use your reaction to the INR memo. Ops Center vault B.

2026-03-22 04:02Z NGA_JoannWong: We need to refine the search terms that OSE is using. At least half of this stuff is pretty obviously not downwind.

2026-03-22 04:03Z NSA_JasbinderAlagh: We can work on the search parameters.

2026-03-22 04:03Z NGA_JoannWong: You know how to specify "monsters killing people" without saying "monsters killing people"?

2026-03-22 04:04Z NSA_JasbinderAlagh: Fair point.

2026-03-22 04:05Z CIA_SofiyaQayum: "Greater Khorasan"? Are they serious?

2026-03-22 04:06Z CIA_LorenzaRivera: They were expected to give an answer. Got a better one?

2026-03-22 04:06Z CIA_SofiyaQayum: Should have just admitted it made no sense.

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 04:03Z private channel

#downwind-coord

2026-03-22 04:03Z CIA_BrianJenkins: OSE is giving us a firehose. Can we get their watch supervisor read in or something, get them to refine the search terms?

2026-03-22 04:05Z CIA_OwenTownsend: Good idea. Want me to authorize a secure teleconference as well?

2026-03-22 04:08Z CIA_BrianJenkins: Yeah. Makes sense.

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 04:07Z private channel

#downwind-analysts

2026-03-22 04:07Z CIA_BrianJenkins: They're reading in the OSE shift lead. Hopefully they'll know how to handle it. I expect we'll hear from them soon. Possibly on the teleconference we're about to get.

2026-03-22 04:07Z NGA_JoannWong: Damn. I'll have to turn my music off.

* * * * *

MEMO 2026-03-22 04:10Z (DOJ NSD)

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND//NOFORN

Precedence: FLASH (Z)

FROM: FISA DUTY OFFICER, DOJ NATIONAL SECURITY DIVISION

TO: FBI/EAD-NSB // FBI/AD-OTD // DEPUTY DIRECTOR, FBI

TIME: 22 MAR 2026 04:10Z

SUBJECT: (TS//NF) AUTHORIZATION FOR PSAP INTERCEPTS

1. (TS//NF) SUMMARY: The Attorney General of the United States has authorized emergency interception of calls and data at Public Safety Answering Points across the United States and its territories and possessions, pursuant to 18 U. S. C. § 2518(7), under the parameters described below.

2. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) PARAMETERS: The Federal Bureau of Investigation is instructed to monitor PSAP traffic to detect either: a significantly increased number of child disappearances and deaths overnight; or any sightings of or attacks by unusual individuals or entities.

3. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) INFORMATION: Such individuals or entities may be described as "monsters", "creatures", or other terms indicating a non-human nature.

4. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) INSTRUCTION: This monitoring is to be carried out immediately and continuously.

5. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) COMPARTMENTATION: Operational leadership is given discretion in determining the most efficient way to execute this interception and processing while authorizing minimal indoctrination into DOWNWIND SAP. Any required read-in is to be authorized by appropriate authorities.

6. (TS//NF) COORDINATION: Any unusual patterns or information, and their underlying data, are to be compiled and delivered to digital repository BOX-05 at CIA HQ.

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND//NOFORN

* * * * *

Secure Conference 2026-03-22 04:15Z WHSR

xNOIWON-O2@CROWN 2026-03-22 04:15Z

oOPS-SAPF-B-SUPPORT@CIA-HQ

PRESENT: CPO LEIA FOSTER (WHSR), JAVID FARHANG (CIA)

CPO FOSTER: Okay, link's up. Who are we bringing in first?

FARHANG: My guys. Vault B.

oOPS-SAPF-B@CIA-HQ

NOW PRESENT: BRIAN JENKINS (CIA), BRIDGET PHELAN (CIA), SOFIYA QAYUM (CIA), LORENZA RIVERA (CIA)

CPO FOSTER: Hello Vault B, can I get a mic check?

JENKINS: I don't know which mic's active.

FARHANG: I set up the full room array. It should pick you up from anywhere.

QAYUM: Who are we getting on this link?

FARHANG: Everyone who's working on this full-time. Chief Foster is running the link from the White House, and I'm your support here. OSE watch vault next, Chief. Bill should be standing by.

oOSE-WATCH-SAPF@CIA-OSE

NOW PRESENT: WILLIAM HEBERT (CIA)

FARHANG: Bill, can you—

[FARHANG'S WORDS ECHO, GROWING IN VOLUME AND SHIFTING TOWARD A FEEDBACK WHINE, WHICH CUTS OFF]

FARHANG: Damn AEC failure. Switch to headphones, Bill.

[SILENCE: 30 SECONDS]

FARHANG: You online now, Bill?

HEBERT: Yeah.

PHELAN: How you holding up?

HEBERT: Still not feeling it. Hopefully being able to talk about it will help or something.

CPO FOSTER: NGA, then NSA?

FARHANG: Please.

oNGA-WATCH-SAPF@NGA-HQ

NOW PRESENT: JOANN WONG (NGA)

CPO FOSTER: Ms. Wong, are you receiving?

WONG: I think it's going to be a long night. How about y'all just call me Jo?

oNSA-SAPF-12@NSA-HQ

NOW PRESENT: JASBINDER ALAGH (NSA)

CPO FOSTER: Fort Meade should be online now.

ALAGH: [QUIET SPEECH, UNINTELLIGIBLE]

CPO FOSTER: Mr. Alagh, are you near your microphone?

ALAGH: [QUIET, UNINTELLIGIBLE]…[QUIET BUT UNDERSTANDABLE] —thing on the shelves by the door.

CPO FOSTER: Adjusting line gain, say again, Mr Alagh.

ALAGH: Hi, folks. I've got some news—

FARHANG: Hold up. We've got a node ID for the FBI.

CPO FOSTER: Bringing them in now.

oDSIC-SAPF-1@FBI-HQ

NOW PRESENT: SPECIAL AGENT CHARLES CARTER (FBI NSB)

CPO FOSTER: Agent Carter, can we get a sound check?

CARTER: Loud and clear, Chief.

CPO FOSTER: Okay, Javid and I will fade into the background now, but we'll be monitoring for problems. No new links will be added without warning. Have a good night.

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 04:21Z DM

Private Messages: @FBI_YvonneDumais, @FBI_CharlesCarter

2026-03-22 04:21Z FBI_YvonneDumais: We're going to have to put these search parameters in as a sealed query, Chuck. Even the semantic query profile is too obvious. People will either think it's a joke, or start to panic.

2026-03-22 04:23Z FBI_CharlesCarter: Now what would make you say a thing like that?

2026-03-22 04:24Z FBI_YvonneDumais: The weight we've put on "monster", "creature", and "impossible" for starters. "Dead children" is also sure to get a second look. But that's not the real problem. We've got no baseline data for this. We don't know how often people call about this stuff normally.

2026-03-22 04:26Z FBI_CharlesCarter: Evie, if what we're worried about actually happens, it's going to be obvious.

* * * * *

Secure Conference 2026-03-22 04:28Z WHSR

xNOIWON-O2@CROWN 2026-03-22 04:28Z

oOPS-SAPF-B-SUPPORT@CIA-HQ

oOPS-SAPF-B@CIA-HQ

oOSE-WATCH-SAPF@CIA-OSE

oNGA-WATCH-SAPF@NGA-HQ

oNSA-SAPF-12@NSA-HQ

oDSIC-SAPF-1@FBI-HQ

PRESENT: BRIAN JENKINS (CIA), BRIDGET PHELAN (CIA), SOFIYA QAYUM (CIA), LORENZA RIVERA (CIA); WILLIAM HEBERT (CIA); JOANN WONG (NGA); JASBINDER ALAGH (NSA); SPECIAL AGENT CHARLES CARTER (FBI NSB); CPO LEIA FOSTER (WHSR); JAVID FARHANG (CIA)

[SLURPING SOUND]

PHELAN: [DISTORTED, AS IF HER MOUTH IS FULL] I'm just saying that until we get clear footage, it's hard to say what's going on.

RIVERA: We've got a clear image of bodies. Can I get one of those protein bars, Brie?

PHELAN: Sure. In Turkmenabat. Don't the police there beat people all the time?

[UTENSILS CLATTER]

QAYUM: Yes. They don't leave bodies in public, though, and we don't have any reason to believe they make a habit of disemboweling people. Whoever got that picture out is going to get a knock on their door, though.

RIVERA: If there's anyone left to knock.

PHELAN: I know Jo said the photo hasn't been modified, but couldn't that blood be fake? The intestines could be stockings or something?

WONG: Stage makeup isn't my forte, but no. [CHEWING] That was too shiny for anything fabric-based. If it is a fake, it's using plastic.

[DOOR CLICKS, BUZZES]

NOW PRESENT: CASSANDRA WHITE (CIA)

WHITE: Brian, Brie, Sofe, Lorrie. Who do we have on the line?

WONG: Jo Wong, NGA

ALAGH: Jaz Alagh, NSA

JENKINS: Bill at OSE is in and out, Special Agent Carter more out than in.

CARTER: In right now. Chuck Carter here. Who's that?

WHITE: Cassie White, I'll be your supervisor for this evening. I see you've all started in on your stashes.

[CHUCKLES]

WHITE: Want me to pull a junior analyst from the floor? For triage. Plus they can clean up and do a run to the vending machines, or at least get us better coffee.

[PAUSE]

WHITE: Okay, I'll get Owen to pick someone and read them in. Start thinking about your orders. I heard there's some new vegan breakfast burritos, but I didn't hear if they're good or not. Now, where are we?

JENKINS: We're fairly sure about the children, and whatever it is is definitely happening before five a. m. local mean time. The public attacks are less clear.

RIVERA: Something is causing public panic, and we have one clear picture of people who've been killed with an unusual degree and form of violence.

WHITE: Social media?

PHELAN: That's the main source, but it's not showing any signs of going viral yet.

WHITE: Timing?

RIVERA: Earliest verified incidents in public around eight a. m. local mean time. I mean, we've verified that there are incidents. We don't know what they are.

WHITE: Why local mean time?

JENKINS: Lorrie's hypothesis, and the data fits so far. Whatever is happening seems to be happening based on the real local time, not what the clocks say.

WHITE: How far?

RIVERA: Hard to say. We've got embassies working on governments in Europe, but station chiefs don't want to tip our hand. I don't know if they're getting that from higher up. But the child deaths have been discovered in Turkey and Ukraine, if we can trust the trends OSE is spotting on social media.

PHELAN: I think we can.

WHITE: Do we have a master timeline?

JENKINS: Lorrie's compiling it.

WHITE: Throw it up on the wall. What about fakes?

WONG: None yet. Couple of original posts have replies with old pictures from different parts of the world. Not sure if those people realize the originals are genuine.

WHITE: Anything else?

RIVERA: I'm working on a couple of different models. I'm not sure—

[LOUD BELL FOR 3 SECONDS, FOLLOWED BY RUSTLING PAPER]

JENKINS: Holy shit.

[RUSTLING PAPER]

RIVERA: Are these photos or video stills? Do we have the files?

WONG: Checking the dump. There's a new video. What are you looking at?

QAYUM: Blood. And claws.

* * * * *

Logs 2026-03-22 04:34Z FBI

PSAP FILTER RESULTS SUMMARY LOG

2026-03-22 04:34Z: QUERY GROUP A: 1 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 0 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:35Z: QUERY GROUP A: 0 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 1 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:36Z: QUERY GROUP A: 2 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 0 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:37Z: QUERY GROUP A: 1 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 0 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:38Z: QUERY GROUP A: 0 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 0 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:39Z: QUERY GROUP A: 1 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 1 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:40Z: QUERY GROUP A: 1 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 0 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:41Z: QUERY GROUP A: 2 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 2 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:42Z: QUERY GROUP A: 0 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 0 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:43Z: QUERY GROUP A: 3 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 0 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:44Z: QUERY GROUP A: 4 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 1 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:45Z: QUERY GROUP A: 3 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 0 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:46Z: QUERY GROUP A: 2 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 0 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:47Z: QUERY GROUP A: 4 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 1 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:48Z: QUERY GROUP A: 3 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 0 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:49Z: QUERY GROUP A: 5 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 1 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:50Z: QUERY GROUP A: 8 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 2 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:51Z: QUERY GROUP A: 9 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 2 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:52Z: QUERY GROUP A: 8 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 4 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:53Z: QUERY GROUP A: 10 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 8 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:54Z: QUERY GROUP A: 9 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 12 HITS.

* * * * *

Secure Conference 2026-03-22 04:38Z WHSR

xNOIWON-O2@CROWN 2026-03-22 04:38Z

oOPS-SAPF-B-SUPPORT@CIA-HQ

oOPS-SAPF-B@CIA-HQ

oOSE-WATCH-SAPF@CIA-OSE

oNGA-WATCH-SAPF@NGA-HQ

oNSA-SAPF-12@NSA-HQ

oDSIC-SAPF-1@FBI-HQ

PRESENT: BRIAN JENKINS (CIA), BRIDGET PHELAN (CIA), SOFIYA QAYUM (CIA), LORENZA RIVERA (CIA), CASSANDRA WHITE (CIA); WILLIAM HEBERT (CIA); JOANN WONG (NGA); JASBINDER ALAGH (NSA); SPECIAL AGENT CHARLES CARTER (FBI NSB); CPO LEIA FOSTER (WHSR); JAVID FARHANG (CIA)

WONG: It's real. Suburban Baku.

PHELAN: That matches the post details. It was taken down less than two minutes after it went up. I guess it was too violent for the platform.

QAYUM: No kidding. So can we throw out that Khorasan suggestion that State came up with now?

JENKINS: Those claws. Are they even claws? They're as long as an arm, and it only has two. One on each, well, arm.

RIVERA: I left my Monster Manual at home.

JENKINS: Where did it come from?

ALAGH: I'll see if I can find unsecured camera feeds from the area. But if you ask me? A nightmare.

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 04:44Z DM

Private Messages: @FBI_YvonneDumais, @FBI_CharlesCarter

2026-03-22 04:44Z FBI_YvonneDumais: Starting to get hits. Want me to triage?

2026-03-22 04:44Z FBI_CharlesCarter: I bet it won't compare to what I just saw. You looked at any yet?

2026-03-22 04:45Z FBI_YvonneDumais: I don't think they're unusual. But how would I tell?

2026-03-22 04:46Z FBI_CharlesCarter: Okay. Keep a running summary in the DOWNWIND folder, and flag anything really weird for me.

* * * * *

Secure Conference 2026-03-22 04:52Z WHSR

xNOIWON-O2@CROWN 2026-03-22 04:52Z

oOPS-SAPF-B-SUPPORT@CIA-HQ

oOPS-SAPF-B@CIA-HQ

oOSE-WATCH-SAPF@CIA-OSE

oNGA-WATCH-SAPF@NGA-HQ

oNSA-SAPF-12@NSA-HQ

oDSIC-SAPF-1@FBI-HQ

PRESENT: BRIAN JENKINS (CIA), BRIDGET PHELAN (CIA), SOFIYA QAYUM (CIA), LORENZA RIVERA (CIA), CASSANDRA WHITE (CIA); WILLIAM HEBERT (CIA); JOANN WONG (NGA); JASBINDER ALAGH (NSA); SPECIAL AGENT CHARLES CARTER (FBI NSB); CPO LEIA FOSTER (WHSR); JAVID FARHANG (CIA)

JENKINS: Another two clear videos, fifteen photos.

WONG: I'm going to need more hands.

WHITE: I'm requesting your watch supervisor bring in some more people. Is two enough?

WONG: If it doesn't speed up any more.

WHITE: Okay, two now, and be ready for more. He might have to pull in some who are off-duty.

WONG: Automatic verification is running, but nothing seems wrong with any of them, just looking at them. This one's Tbilisi Old Town, 95% at least. Definitely Georgia. Other video is probably Baghdad, definitely Fertile Crescent, and the audio is Gulf Arabic, if I'm any judge. So if they're local, it probably isn't far from Baghdad.

QAYUM: Let me listen to it. [Pause] Definitely southern Mesopotamian, so Baghdad makes sense. What did the post say?

JENKINS: Nothing, just a video. I thought you were an expert on Turkic Central Asia.

QAYUM: I am, but that doesn't mean I can't recognize that rhythmic bounce. Trust me, it's distinctive.

PHELAN: Eight of these images aren't relevant. Can we maybe get some people read in to triage?

WHITE: Give me a minute.

[DOOR CLOSES]

CARTER: Data's starting to come in from our 911 text-scraping. Nothing remarkable yet. We can expect a lot of false positives.

RIVERA: Might be worth having someone looking at it closely to make sure we don't miss anything.

CARTER: We've got an agent on it.

[SILENCE: 4 MINUTES]

ALAGH: Good thing I've got a strong stomach.

JENKINS: Another video. Priority on checking this one for special effects, Jo, it's weird.

WONG: The other photos are done. All of the relevant ones are real. I'm pushing the new vid to the front of the queue. What's weird about it?

[DOOR CLICKS, BUZZES]

WHITE: Owen's calling in all the overnight backup and opening Vaults C and E. This room is now designated ops center for the Downwind Task Force. You're doing the main analysis, C will have some Ops people in to work on data acquisition, plus some people working on response analysis. They'll be linked with rooms at ODNI and FEMA to game options. Your job will be to take what E passes up, and produce a solid model for the response people.

ALAGH: Should Jo and me switch to conference with E?

WHITE: No. They'll get their own liaisons, and I need you here to be reactive. You're both getting backup from your own agencies as well.

[DOOR CLICKS, BUZZES]

NOW PRESENT: HAYLEY CROFT (NGA), MICHAEL NASH (NGA)

NASH: Hey, Jo.

WHITE: Your support arrived, Jo?

WONG: Yep. This is a closet, by the way.

CROFT: Hayley Croft here, the other one's Mike Nash. And there are three workstations.

NASH: I'll take the one where your chair gets hit when the door opens.

RIVERA: About the model. I'm not sure that there's one—

[DOOR CLICKS, BUZZES]

NOW PRESENT: ROBERT MCAULEY (CIA)

PHELAN: Bob. Welcome to the house of fun.

MCAULEY: Uh, yeah. Did you want me to start with triage, or a concourse run?

WHITE: Everyone got their orders ready?

* * * * *

Logs 2026-03-22 04:55Z FBI

PSAP FILTER RESULTS SUMMARY LOG

2026-03-22 04:55Z: QUERY GROUP A: 4 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 12 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:56Z: QUERY GROUP A: 3 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 12 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:57Z: QUERY GROUP A: 8 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 13 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:58Z: QUERY GROUP A: 12 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 11 HITS.

2026-03-22 04:59Z: QUERY GROUP A: 10 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 12 HITS.

2026-03-22 05:00Z: QUERY GROUP A: 13 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 15 HITS.

2026-03-22 05:01Z: QUERY GROUP A: 11 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 18 HITS.

2026-03-22 05:02Z: QUERY GROUP A: 14 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 20 HITS.

2026-03-22 05:03Z: QUERY GROUP A: 11 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 24 HITS.

2026-03-22 05:04Z: QUERY GROUP A: 12 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 22 HITS.

2026-03-22 05:05Z: QUERY GROUP A: 13 HITS. QUERY GROUP B: 28 HITS.

* * * * *

Secure Conference 2026-03-22 05:07Z WHSR

xNOIWON-O2@CROWN 2026-03-22 05:07Z

oOPS-SAPF-B-SUPPORT@CIA-HQ

oOPS-SAPF-B@CIA-HQ

oOSE-WATCH-SAPF@CIA-OSE

oNGA-WATCH-SAPF@NGA-HQ

oNSA-SAPF-12@NSA-HQ

oDSIC-SAPF-1@FBI-HQ

PRESENT: BRIAN JENKINS (CIA), BRIDGET PHELAN (CIA), SOFIYA QAYUM (CIA), LORENZA RIVERA (CIA), CASSANDRA WHITE (CIA); WILLIAM HEBERT (CIA); HAYLEY CROFT (NGA), MICHAEL NASH (NGA), JOANN WONG (NGA); JASBINDER ALAGH (NSA); SPECIAL AGENT CHARLES CARTER (FBI NSB); CPO LEIA FOSTER (WHSR); JAVID FARHANG (CIA)

WHITE: So we're looking at eight a. m. local solar mean onset of these [PAUSE] monsters?

RIVERA: The earliest best-estimate times of verified videos form a cluster shortly after 08:00, yes. But that's making the assumption that the first things we're seeing are the first things that happen.

WHITE: What else can we do? We can put a note on the model that there's an unsafe assumption and advise a margin of error.

RIVERA: Maybe we should be looking further—

CPO FOSTER: Sorry to interrupt. DARPA coming online.

oSTO-WATCH@DARPA-ARLINGTON

NOW PRESENT: DR. HIRAM BECKETT (DARPA)

CPO FOSTER: Dr. Beckett, you're online with the DOWNWIND Task Force.

WHITE: Dr. Beckett, have you reviewed the video?

BECKETT: Call me Harm. And yes, it's fascinating. Perfect adaptive camouflage or cloaking. We didn't think anyone had that, at least not in a practical form.

WHITE: You think this is some sort of state actor?

BECKETT: I certainly don't think any non-state groups in the region could conceivably have this. If it were proven to exist, I'd say it's most likely China. Maybe South Korea or Japan, and the UK and Germany are big on the theory.

QAYUM: I don't think any of our allies would be murdering civilians in Karrada.

BECKETT: I don't think China would, either, but that's not my field. We are so far from having anything working on the scale of a person, or of such a complex, and indeed such an unusual shape, that I don't think any of them could do it. There was no hazing before it became visible, and at that scale a refractive metamaterial-based system would show phase distortion and chromatic aberration. It takes light longer to go around than through, you see. Any chance we have any multispectral imaging of this?

JENKINS: It was shot on a smartphone, Dr. Beckett.

BECKETT: Oh. Well, anyway, frame-by-frame analysis is more consistent with refractive metamaterials than any sort of projective active camouflage. And while such an, um, organic surface is hard to imagine having the required properties for refractive cloaking, it seems more likely than it being some sort of chameleon effect. Plus that background is too varied for projective to work, unless it was trying to conceal itself from only the camera's position.

RIVERA: What if it literally wasn't there until it was visible, Harm?

BECKETT: Teleportation, you mean?

RIVERA: Something like that.

BECKETT: That's just a fantasy, um—

RIVERA: Lorrie Rivera.

BECKETT: That's just a fantasy, Lorrie. The only thing we think we might be able to teleport anytime soon is information, not actual matter.

WHITE: Thank you, Dr. Beckett. I'll ask Chief Foster to drop you from the link, but please stay where you are. We might have more for you soon.

BECKETT: Glad to help.

DROPPED: STO-WATCH@DARPA-ARLINGTON

NO LONGER PRESENT: DR. HIRAM BECKETT

CPO FOSTER: DARPA offline.

PHELAN: He didn't have anything to say about the rest of the video?

WHITE: Not his job. Now let's get this model worked out.

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 05:11Z private channel

#downwind-command

2026-03-22 05:11Z CIA_CassandraWhite: We just got feedback from DARPA. I think it's safe to say we're not going to get anything useful in terms of technology assessment.

2026-03-22 05:13Z CIA_ADDA: What did they say?

2026-03-22 05:14Z CIA_CassandraWhite: There are possible explanations for the invisibility, but no one can actually do it.

2026-03-22 05:15Z ODNI_KarlJones: It's demonstrably happening, Ms. White.

2026-03-22 05:15Z CIA_CassandraWhite: With respect, sir, we don't know what's happening.

* * * * *

Secure Conference 2026-03-22 05:21Z WHSR

xNOIWON-O2@CROWN 2026-03-22 05:21Z

oOPS-SAPF-B-SUPPORT@CIA-HQ

oOPS-SAPF-B@CIA-HQ

oOSE-WATCH-SAPF@CIA-OSE

oNGA-WATCH-SAPF@NGA-HQ

oNSA-SAPF-12@NSA-HQ

oDSIC-SAPF-1@FBI-HQ

PRESENT: BRIAN JENKINS (CIA), BRIDGET PHELAN (CIA), SOFIYA QAYUM (CIA), LORENZA RIVERA (CIA), CASSANDRA WHITE (CIA); WILLIAM HEBERT (CIA); HAYLEY CROFT (NGA), MICHAEL NASH (NGA), JOANN WONG (NGA); JASBINDER ALAGH (NSA); SPECIAL AGENT CHARLES CARTER (FBI NSB); CPO LEIA FOSTER (WHSR); JAVID FARHANG (CIA)

RIVERA: So as you can see, every local timeline we've found so far is consistent with a model where onset of violent entities in public is happening by [PAPERS RUSTLE] 07:55 local mean time, we're down to now.

WHITE: So that will be what, here?

RIVERA: Across the DC Metro Area, 09:00 to 09:12, roughly. Starting at the Chesapeake and hitting Jefferson County about twelve minutes later. But that's all making an assumption that—

[DOOR CLICKS, BUZZES]

[RUSTLING AND THUMPING SOUNDS]

[DOOR CLICKS]

NOW PRESENT: ROBERT MCAULEY (CIA)

MCAULEY: They were out of meatball Hot Pockets. I picked up one cheesesteak and one ham, I hope that's okay.

PHELAN: Ham is good.

QAYUM: I'll take the cheesesteak if you're not having it. Oh, Bob, mine was the vegan breakfast burrito.

PHELAN: Dibs on the microwave.

MCAULEY: Whose was the Caesar salad?

JENKINS: That's mine.

MCAULEY: Pesto pasta was yours, ma'am?

WHITE: I'm a supervisor, Bob, not a director. Call me Cassie.

MCAULEY: Yes, um, yeah, okay. Dandan noodles?

RIVERA: Here.

MCAULEY: Okay, coffees, I've got two flat whites, a latte and a mocha.

[RUSTLING]

WHITE: No coffee, Brian?

RIVERA: He's got his AeroPress.

MCAULEY: If everyone's got coffee, should I put the energy drinks in the fridge?

QAYUM: No, I want one now. Voodoo Grape?

PHELAN: I haven't tried that one. Is it good?

QAYUM: You like grape soda?

PHELAN: Not really.

[CAN OPENING]

QAYUM: Then no.

RIVERA: Pass me a Rio Punch, Bob.

[LOUD SIPPING]

[CAN OPENING]

[LOUD SIPPING]

CROFT: I wish we had y'all's vending machines.

[MICROWAVE DINGS]

* * * * *

ChatSurfer 2026-03-22 05:24Z private channel

#downwind-command

2026-03-22 05:24Z CIA_CassandraWhite: Zeke, we've got a model for planning.

2026-03-22 05:24Z [@CIA_CassandraWhite sent a file: downwind-model-v1. xlsx. tdf]

2026-03-22 05:29Z CIA_EzekielSchmidt: Well, that gives us some time to plan. Sorry, "present planning options".

2026-03-22 05:30Z CIA_CassandraWhite: Read the fine print, Zeke. Those are subject to change every time we get more information.

* * * * *

Secure Conference 2026-03-22 05:29Z WHSR

xNOIWON-O2@CROWN 2026-03-22 05:29Z

oOPS-SAPF-B-SUPPORT@CIA-HQ

oOPS-SAPF-B@CIA-HQ

oOSE-WATCH-SAPF@CIA-OSE

oNGA-WATCH-SAPF@NGA-HQ

oNSA-SAPF-12@NSA-HQ

oDSIC-SAPF-1@FBI-HQ

PRESENT: BRIAN JENKINS (CIA), ROBERT MCAULEY (CIA), BRIDGET PHELAN (CIA), SOFIYA QAYUM (CIA), LORENZA RIVERA (CIA), CASSANDRA WHITE (CIA); WILLIAM HEBERT (CIA); HAYLEY CROFT (NGA), MICHAEL NASH (NGA), JOANN WONG (NGA); JASBINDER ALAGH (NSA); SPECIAL AGENT CHARLES CARTER (FBI NSB); CPO LEIA FOSTER (WHSR); JAVID FARHANG (CIA)

[CLATTERING, CHEWING AND SLURPING NOISES]

WHITE: Sorry, Lorrie, you were saying something before Bob got back?

[MICROWAVE DINGS]

RIVERA: One second, that's mine.

[30 SECONDS SILENCE, BROKEN BY A MICROWAVE OPENING AND CLOSING]

RIVERA: We're working on an unstated assumption, that the children and the monsters are separate effects of whatever's causing this.

QAYUM: I see where you're going. What if monsters are kidnapping and killing the kids?

RIVERA: Exactly.

WHITE: But the kids are being found at least two hours before any of the monsters appear.

RIVERA: I know. But it keeps nagging at the back of my head, you know? Maybe it's the same thing, and there's another reason for the delay.

WHITE: Keep working on it in the back of your head, and if you get any data to support it, we can talk about it.

ALAGH: You know, I don't think we're going to be allowed to keep calling them "monsters" in reports.

RIVERA: What else do you want to call them?

ALAGH: They look like they're alive, more or less. But we don't know what they are or where they come from. How about "unexplained biological entities"?

WHITE: I'll run it up the flagpole. Anyone got anything else for now?

NASH: One of the latest images doesn't check out as real or fake.

PHELAN: It has to be one or the other.

CROFT: It's not real, because light is behaving wrong. But we're used to the ways that light goes wrong in manipulated images and videos, and it doesn't fit any of those.

WHITE: What does that signify?

CROFT: Damned if I know.

WHITE: Keep working on it. Now—

[LOUD BELL FOR 3 SECONDS, FOLLOWED BY RUSTLING PAPER]

MCAULEY: Cable from Islamabad.

[RUSTLING PAPER]

MCAULEY: Nothing on the monsters. At least, not directly. But they would definitely explain things.

QAYUM: You can say that again.

* * * * *

CABLE 2026-03-22 05:32Z (STATION)

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND/HCS-O/SI-GAMMA//NOFORN

CZC DTB128-220326-02

PRECEDENCE: FLASH (Z)

DTG: 220532Z MAR 26

FM: CIA STATION ISLAMABAD

TO: CIA HQ/DOWNWIND TASK FORCE

REF: [1] DTB128-220326-02-I1 [2] DTB128-220326-02-Z1

SUBJ: (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) UPDATE RE DOWNWIND IN PAKISTAN

1. (TS//NF) Government of Pakistan has not responded to further requests for info.

2. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) Government of Pakistan continues to deny any events related to DOWNWIND.

3. (TS//DOWNWIND/HCS-O//NF) Human source PAK-MIL-029 reports several military units out of contact as of 04:22Z, with additional units unreachable over the last hour. All nuclear capabilities out of contact from 05:29Z. Efforts to confirm ongoing. USSTRATCOM notified separately via standard channels.

4. (TS//DOWNWIND/HCS-O//NF) Human source PAK-MIL-031 reports deployment of available military assets to major population centers with expectation of de facto martial law as of 04:25Z.

5. (TS//DOWNWIND/HCS-O//NF) Human source PAK-GOV-008 reports breakdown of non-military government communications in regions indicated by attached map [1].

6. (TS//DOWNWIND/SI-GAMMA//NF) Potentially relevant government and military communications obtained by Station SCS provided in attached archive [2]. Station resources inadequate for full analysis.

7. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) STATION COMMENT: DOWNWIND phenomena related to children occurred, confidence 99%. Other DOWNWIND phenomena occurred and continuing, confidence 80%, best estimate onset 03:00Z approx.

8. (TS//DOWNWIND//NF) Diplomatic Enclave appears to remain secure.

END

TOP SECRET//DOWNWIND/HCS-O/SI-GAMMA//NOFORN